Monthly Archives: November 2012

McCain v. Romney

McCain beats Romney? Stop the stupidity!

There is a very dangerous and stupid analysis floating around the Republican blogosphere that goes something like this:  John McCain got 2 million more votes that Mitt Romney.  How can this be?  Either Romney was a terrible candidate – unable to win even all of the McCain voters from 2008, or evangelical Christians refused to […]

2012 vs. 2008 turnout (estimate)

Did Romney lose on turnout? And other 2012 inside the numbers questions

I made a comment in my previous post that it was hard to imagine the 2012 turnout was much less than the 2008 turnout.  Votes are still being counted, but at this point it looks as though the turnout was lower than in 2008 by about 8 or 8.5%, which is pretty substantial.  Columnists are […]

The writing on the wall

Post-election columns and blogs usually adopt one of two themes: this is a major crisis, or here’s why it’s not so bad.  Let me briefly make the case why it’s not so bad, and then spend a bit more time on reality. Here’s why it’s not so bad: Mitt Romney did considerably better than John […]

Don’t trust polls – but based on the polls, I’m picking…

I presume today will be a day for bloggers everywhere to announce their election predictions.  I also presume that virtually no one will bother to read all of these election predictions.  At least I find the most boring thing in my Saturday paper to be the local sports guy’s picks for the Sunday NFL games.  […]

Outside the bubble

One of the reasons independents may be turning away from the President in this election is that he hasn’t lived up to the image he created for himself in 2008. Why are independents independent?  To be sure, some independents fall into the category of the “low-information voter” skewered so viciously by Bill Maher and so […]